This afternoon, B.C. Premier David Eby formally called an early provincial election for October 24th, following a meeting with Lieutenant Governor Wendy Cocchia to dissolve the legislature.
This decision sends British Columbians to the polls less than two years into the government’s slim majority mandate and just one week after the province’s municipal elections slated for October 17th. On the heels of the resignation of B.C. Conservatives leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay, today’s announcement came despite significant pushback from industry, the Union of BC Municipalities, and B.C. Mayors, who warned that overlapping campaigns risk diverting attention away from local issues and candidates.
There will indeed be competing narratives for why British Columbians are heading back to the polls just two years after the last provincial election.
The case Premier David Eby made during his announcement today is that his NDP government needs a stronger mandate -and political stability- to navigate the economic uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s trade war. But the political opportunism behind the decision will be difficult to ignore, as Eby can now seek that renewed mandate while his opponents on the centre-right are deeply divided and consumed by internal turmoil.
That turmoil reached its peak on Sunday night when Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned as leader of the BC Conservatives, only a few months after winning the leadership race. Her departure followed weeks of caucus defections, expulsions, and internal conflict. The remaining caucus members are attempting to regroup under the Conservative flag with Lorne Doerkson as interim leader.
Last week, a sizeable contingent of former BC Conservative MLAs joined Kamloops MLA Peter Milobar under the CentreBC banner. Findlay’s departure paved the way for discussions between the two camps about a potential cooperation agreement or merger. All but one of those MLAs have since rejoined the Conservatives and will stand for election under Doerkson’s leadership. The upstart party now has one incumbent MLA, Elenore Sturko, and it leaves little time to build the organization, recruit candidates, and raise the resources required for a province-wide campaign.
The disarray of a unified opposition has fundamentally changed B.C.’s political landscape, and with it, Eby’s political fortunes. It is a shift he now appears prepared to test at the ballot box.
Many of the issues that drove declining support for Eby and his government in the spring remain unresolved. The NDP government has faced significant pressure over a record budget deficit, a slowing economy, healthcare, public safety, and the politically difficult debate over Indigenous rights and title. These are complex issues, but they are also fundamental to how projects get built and business gets done in B.C. Their resolution will play a significant role in determining the success of the government’s “Look West” economic strategy. Any progress on these issues will now be delayed until after a new government is formed and through that transition.
For organizations with interests before government, this creates a complicated political and legislative runway with two levels of government simultaneously shifting from governing to campaigning; and then potentially a compressed legislative session and pre-budget engagement period following the election.
The key electoral question for Premier Eby may not be whether the NDP can win more votes. Instead, the more important question may be whether the NDP can convert roughly the same coalition of voters into a larger number of seats with the anti-NDP vote now divided between competing parties. David Eby’s future as leader, should the election not result in a stronger majority for the NDP than the one they entered the campaign with, may also be a question on the table by the time October 24th comes around.
As is often the case in British Columbia, understanding the political environment will be every bit as important as understanding the policy environment. Prairie Sky Strategy will be on the ground in B.C. and watching the campaign unfold every step of the way.
We’re Here to Help
For more information and insights about what these developments mean for British Columbia’s political landscape, please contact:
Cam Ehl – Senior Strategy Advisor, BC
cam.ehl@prairieskystrategy.ca
250.213.1554
Ken Veldman – Senior Strategy Advisor, BC
ken@prairieskystrategy.ca
250.600.0670
Jill Swenson- Senior Strategy Advisor, BC and Federal
jill@prairieskystrategy.ca
