Alberta’s NDP secured a narrow victory in the Calgary-Shaw by-election last night, but the result reflects a large swing in voter sentiment compared to the 2023 general election. The key question now is whether this outcome represents a typical by-election phenomenon, where voter apathy can distort results, or whether it is an indicator of a more material shift in political momentum heading toward the next general election in Alberta.
NDP candidate Kyle Campbell defeated UCP candidate Mike Derry by 582 votes, earning 46.6 percent of the vote compared to 43 per cent respectively. While Calgary-Shaw was briefly held by the NDP during the 2015 Orange Wave, the riding has long been viewed as a conservative blue suburban constituency and had been held by the UCP since 2019, most recently by former cabinet minister Rebecca Schulz, whose move to the private sector triggered the by-election.
The Magnitude of the Swing Matters
What makes this result particularly noteworthy is the scale of the political turnaround. The UCP won Calgary-Shaw by roughly 40 percentage points in 2019 and then retained the seat by approximately 14 points in 2023. For the NDP to erase that advantage and capture the riding outright in a matter of two election cycles represents a significant shift in voter sentiment.
By-elections should always be interpreted with caution, but they can also expose political vulnerabilities that governments ignore at their peril.
Understanding the By-Election Dynamic
Turnout in by-elections are typically lower than in general elections. Voters who are content with the status quo often stay home, while voters motivated by frustration or a desire to send a message are more likely to cast a ballot. That reality means opposition parties frequently perform better in by-elections than they do in province-wide contests.
However, simply dismissing the Calgary-Shaw result as a protest vote would be a mistake. The UCP vote dropped by 7000 votes to 13,970. That means that more than half the UCP voters from 2023, either stayed home or voted for somebody else. At the same time, the NDP vote also dropped by just over 3000 which seems to suggest there was less of a shift in voting sentiment and more of voter apathy.
Healthcare, Affordability and Separation Take Centre Stage
The NDP campaign focused heavily on issues that continue to resonate with Calgary families: access to health care, rising affordability pressures, and opposition to Alberta separation.
Rather than centering the campaign on ideology, the NDP framed the election around practical concerns facing households every day. Those issues appear to have connected with enough voters to overcome the riding’s historical conservative advantage.
The newly formed Progressive Tory party may also have played a spoiler role for the UCP, with their candidate Kyle Joseph capturing 978 votes, a total larger than the NDP’s margin of victory.
The Biggest Winner: Naheed Nenshi?
Politically, however, the night’s biggest winner may be NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi.
Since becoming leader, Nenshi has argued that any path to government runs through Calgary and that the NDP must expand its support beyond its traditional urban base. Calgary-Shaw provides the strongest evidence yet that this strategy is working.
The victory also helps quiet rumblings within NDP circles about Nenshi’s leadership and electoral appeal. He promised to make the party even more competitive in Calgary’s suburban battlegrounds and has now delivered a tangible result.
A Loss for the UCP
For the UCP, the loss carries symbolic and practical significance. It marks the first time the party has lost a by-election since its formation in 2017. While one by-election does not determine the outcome of a general election, Calgary-Shaw demonstrates that previously safe UCP territory can no longer be taken for granted.
The result is not a crisis for Premier Danielle Smith’s government. But it is a warning shot across the UCP’s bow. Voters in Calgary appear increasingly willing to consider alternatives, and concerns around affordability, health care, and Alberta’s political direction are becoming more influential in shaping electoral outcomes.
Whether the Calgary-Shaw outcome proves to be a temporary protest vote or the beginning of a broader political realignment in Alberta remains to be seen. However, with the 2027 provincial election now just over a year away, both the UCP and NDP will be studying this by-election result closely for clues about what lies ahead.
We’re Here to Help
For more information and insights about what these developments mean for Alberta’s political landscape, please contact:
Rick Fraser -Senior Strategy Advisor
rick@prairieskystrategy.ca
403.701.7584
Whitney Issik – Senior Strategy Advisor
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403.815.2582
Stacie Lara – Senior Strategy Advisor
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587.577.2313
Leigha Parsons – Senior Strategy Advisor
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403.650.8191
Line Porfon – Senior Strategy Advisor
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780.803.6267
Mat Steppan – Vice President
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Jeff Sterzuk – President
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Ben Thibault – Senior Strategy Advisor
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403.998.0494
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