Five weeks ago, B.C.’s Conservatives were divided, leaderless and struggling to hold their caucus together. On Saturday, they won one of the largest majorities in provincial history, ending nine years of NDP government and delivering David Eby a crushing defeat in an election he didn’t need to call. And, well, B.C. did end up with the supermajority David Eby claimed the province needed when he called the election. It just isn’t Eby’s.
What Happened and Why
While official results are still being finalized, the Conservatives lead in 63 of 93 ridings, leaving the NDP with 28 seats and the Greens with two. The Conservatives swept all 10 Surrey ridings, a particularly damaging result given the NDP’s concentrated campaign efforts there.
The Conservatives’ province-wide vote share rose from 43.3% in 2024 to approximately 48%. Combined with declining NDP support, that shift translated into a dramatic increase in seats, particularly in Metro Vancouver, which accounted for 16 of the 22 ridings that changed hands.
With a record-low voter turnout at approximately 48%, the NDP’s traditionally strong ground game appears to have fallen short when it mattered most. Whether that reflected voter disengagement, campaign organization or broader dissatisfaction with the government remains an open question.
The Conservatives made notable gains in Lower Mainland ridings with significant Asian and South Asian populations, including Vancouver-Langara, Vancouver-Fraserview, Richmond, Delta and Surrey. Conservative campaign teams reported a marked shift in South Asian support at the doorstep compared with 2024, when the NDP performed more strongly among these voters. While riding results cannot establish how individual communities voted, the geographic pattern points to a potentially important shift in the NDP’s electoral coalition.
Notable NDP losses include:
- Surrey-Newton: Jessie Sunner, former Minister of Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills.
- Surrey-Fleetwood: Jagrup Brar, former Minister of Mining and Critical Minerals.
- Vancouver-Yaletown: Terry Yung, former Minister of State for Community Safety and Integrated Services.
- Burnaby Centre: Anne Kang, former Minister of Tourism, Arts and Sport.
- Port Moody-Burquitlam: Rick Glumac, former Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence and New Technologies.
- Coquitlam-Burke Mountain: Jodie Wickens, former Minister of Children and Family Development.
More than a quarter of the NDP’s 2024 voters did not return to the party, underscoring the extent to which the NDP struggled to mobilize its traditional support, particularly in the Lower Mainland.
Eby’s Miscalculation
Eby’s election call may go down as one of the most consequential political miscalculations in recent B.C. history. He had a functioning majority, two years left to govern and an opposition busy tearing itself apart. Instead, he handed the Conservatives a reason to unite. The decision also drew criticism from municipal leaders furious about its overlap with local elections.
What followed was a remarkably poor campaign from a party that had chosen the timing. The NDP cycled through messages about Donald Trump, taxing the wealthy and the dangers of a Conservative government, none of which gained traction. Doerkson, virtually unknown to most British Columbians weeks earlier, stuck to the economy and his small-business credentials.
In his concession speech, Eby accepted responsibility for the campaign and announced his resignation as NDP leader.
What’s Next for Premier-Designate Doerkson
Doerkson inherits a nearly $14-billion deficit and a platform promising tax relief, fiscal restraint and investment. His priorities include an independent fiscal review, raising the basic personal income tax exemption to $32,000, freezing external public-service hiring and reducing consulting costs. He has also pledged a commission to address emergency-room closures and wait times.
He has committed to repealing DRIPA and CleanBC, expanding LNG production and accelerating permitting. Infrastructure promises include replacing the George Massey Tunnel project with a 10-lane bridge, extending the SkyTrain to Surrey’s Newton neighbourhood and major Surrey hospital investments.
The question is how much can be delivered simultaneously. Replacing an infrastructure project already underway carries financial and scheduling consequences, while new capital commitments compete with tax cuts and deficit reduction. Repealing DRIPA raises broader questions about the government’s relationship with Indigenous leadership, the implications for major project approvals and what framework, if any, would replace it. A large legislative majority doesn’t eliminate these challenges.
Working with Ottawa
There may be more common ground between Doerkson and Prime Minister Mark Carney than their party labels suggest, particularly on major projects, private investment and energy infrastructure. However, Ottawa’s commitment to preserve the North Coast tanker ban remains a potential flashpoint, while Alberta’s proposed southern pipeline route to Delta presents a separate opportunity for cooperation.
Doerkson has a reputation as a consensus-builder, but delivering his mandate will require strong Cabinet ministers who can build relationships with their federal counterparts. His Cabinet choices will be critical to advancing B.C.’s interests in Ottawa, particularly where provincial and federal priorities diverge.
What We’re Watching
Doerkson has appointed Kim Henderson, a former Deputy Minister to the Premier, Cabinet Secretary and Head of the BC Public Service under the BC Liberals, to lead his transition. Her experience includes senior roles in provincial finance, B.C.’s core review, Alberta’s 2019 fiscal review and major projects, including Trans Mountain. Her appointment signals a willingness to draw on former BC Liberal expertise in fiscal management, government restructuring and resource development.
Attention now turns to Cabinet appointments, senior public-service changes and a possible fall legislative sitting. Key figures to watch include Peter Milobar (Kamloops), Kiel Giddens (Prince George), Gavin Dew (Kelowna), Jaime Stein (Vancouver), and Jessy Sahota and Megan Knight (Surrey). Their portfolios will offer an early indication of how Doerkson intends to balance regional representation, political experience and delivery of his mandate.
For industry, the immediate questions are which existing projects and funding commitments will proceed, which may face review, and how quickly the government moves on permitting and procurement reforms. Cabinet appointments in Finance, Energy, Infrastructure and Indigenous Relations will be particularly consequential.
We’re Here to Help
For more information and insights about what these developments mean for British Columbia’s political landscape, please contact:
Cam Ehl – Senior Strategy Advisor, BC
cam.ehl@prairieskystrategy.ca
250.213.1554
Ken Veldman – Senior Strategy Advisor, BC
ken@prairieskystrategy.ca
250.600.0670
Jill Swenson- Senior Strategy Advisor, BC and Federal
jill@prairieskystrategy.ca
