September 17, 2024
Parliament resumed sitting yesterday after a summer filled with a series of developments set the stage for a continued politically charged Fall session.
During the summer the federal government forced binding arbitration ending a labour dispute at both CN and CPKC railway companies, which threatened to seriously disrupt major supply chains across the country. Ottawa also announced measures to tighten up the number of temporary foreign workers and international students allowed into the country. On the economic front, the Bank of Canada has now reduced interest rates three consecutive times and today announced that the inflation rate has fallen to 2%, the Bank’s target, indicating interest rates could fall faster than originally predicted.
Most dramatically, on September 4th the NDP announced they were ending their Supply and Confidence Agreement with the Liberals, which would have seen them support the government through the next federal budget. The agreement had all but guaranteed the next election wouldn’t happen until the legislated election date in October 2025. Even though on the surface it seems the government is now on more shaky ground, the NDP have indicated that they will vote on a case-by-case basis, as will the Bloc Québécois. The current reality of the polls, which has the Conservatives with a roughly 20-point lead over the Liberals who are sitting in the low 20s and the NDP in the mid to high teens, is the key. There likely isn’t much appetite for the NDP or the Bloc to vote with the Conservatives to take down the government on a confidence matter (it would take all three parties to defeat the government).
More bad news for the governing Liberals has also arisen with the results of two federal by-elections held yesterday. The Liberals lost their long-held seat of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Montreal to the Bloc in a very tight race. This is on the heels of the loss of the Toronto-St Paul’s by-election to the Conservatives in late June in what was considered a Liberal stronghold in downtown Toronto. The second by-election held yesterday was in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona which has long been held by the NDP, who were victorious last evening over the Conservatives although more narrowly than in previous elections. Traditionally, the Liberals place third in this riding which is where they ended up last night albeit with a poorer turnout than normal.
With this backdrop, we can expect a very highly partisan atmosphere while each party tries to position itself for the next election, whenever that may be.
We’re Here to Help
For more information and insights about what these developments mean for Canada’s political landscape, please contact:
Brian Gilbertson
Senior Strategy Advisor—Ottawa
brian@praireskystrategy.ca
403.471.6470
Tara Bingham
Vice President
tara@prairieskystrategy.ca
204.390.7760
To learn more about Prairie Sky Strategy, please visit our website.
