The Manitoba Legislature adjourned Thursday after a brief two-week session kicked off by the Throne Speech on November 18th. At the halfway point of its first mandate, Premier Kinew’s NDP Government continues to have relatively solid support, with new polling confirming Kinew continues to be Canada’s most popular premier.
Throne Speech Highlights
The Throne Speech contained a series of commitments:
- Balanced Budget: Renewed pledge to balance the provincial budget in the first term, despite a stubborn deficit of $890 million.
- Economic Strategy: Prioritized development of data centres to “Trump-proof” Manitoba’s economy.
- Nation-Building Projects: Reaffirmed Churchill as a strategic priority for resource exports.
- Energy Investments: Announced new gas turbines in Brandon to address emerging power requirements and load growth.
- Healthcare and Public Safety: Routine commitments to improve services, though both remain costly and politically challenging.
Kinew’s Balancing Act
The Premier continues to walk a fine line: emphasizing fiscal responsibility, economic development, and conventional energy (including 750 MW of new fuel-burning turbines and resource export plans through the Port of Churchill), while avoiding sharp ideological swings to keep centre-leaning voters plus disaffected Tories onside.
The price of this centrist approach is the increasing dismay of certain factions in the NDP base, with growing complaints about perceived right-leaning policy priorities of crime, sentencing, deficit reduction, fossil fuels, while environmental issues take a back seat.
Legislative Discord
In the Manitoba Legislature, decorum has deteriorated even more than usual, with MLAs on both sides trading personal barbs and Speaker Tom Lindsey issuing repeated warnings. Rumours suggest that even the House Leaders have at times broken off communication. Manitobans want a more constructive tone, but neither side seems ready to oblige.
Opposition in Recovery Mode
The Opposition PCs are still reeling after a series of unfortunate events, including the disastrous 2023 election campaign and the loss of almost every Winnipeg seat, a divisive leadership contest decided by the narrowest of margins, and an Ethics Commissioner’s Report citing breaches of the caretaker convention during the transition to an NDP Government. New leader Obby Khan, however, brings energy, an ability to speak plainly, and a level of personal popularity rivaling the Premier’s appeal. Meanwhile, the provincial Liberal party has selected a new leader but holds only one seat and shows no signs of relevance.
Crime and Addictions Front and Centre
Public disorder, the proliferation of encampments, and drug-fueled crime continue to dominate the news headlines. While Winnipeg’s Mayor Gillingham has earned praise for recent efforts to reclaim public spaces, the provincial government’s approach is drawing some concerns:
- A new bill that allows drug addicts to be detained for 72 hours, and
- Pledges to fast-track the opening of a drug injection site in Winnipeg’s Point Douglas in January, without prior community consultation, have sparked backlash.
Cracks in the NDP Armour?
Despite strong polling, cracks are starting to show for the NDP Government. There was a lacklustre response at AMM (the annual November gathering of municipal officials), an anemic economic development strategy, criticism by Chambers of Commerce leaders on the lack of support for business, and healthcare wait times that remain stubbornly high. Balanced budget commitments also appear increasingly out of reach, and the Manitoba economy, buffeted by tariffs and market uncertainty, continues to underperform.
What’s Next?
With two years remaining in the mandate, Premier Kinew faces tough choices. Political watchers speculate he may pull the plug and call an early election sometime in 2026, while his personal popularity remains high and before his rivals fully regroup.
We’re Here to Help
For more information and insights about what these developments mean for Manitoba’s political landscape, please contact:
Cameron Friesen – Senior Strategy Advisor
cameron@prairieskystrategy.ca
204.332.1445
Connie Tamoto – Senior Strategy Advisor
connie@prairieskystrategy.ca
204.918.0344
To learn more about Prairie Sky Strategy, please visit our website.
